Kendall County Sales Trends

Dated: 12/19/2017

Views: 137

 A lot of people ask me about certain trends in the real estate market that they hear about, see or feel in their own community. They wonder when is the right time to sell their home, if they will get more for their home during different parts of the year and whether or not prices are still going up every year.

Since its December, and I have some extra time on my hands (not really), I thought I would dig into what the numbers and see what I come up with. I downloaded the data for all residential sales in Kendall County for 2017 and used three indicators of market condition to reflect on the trends for this year: the number of units sold, days on market and average price. The chart for 2017 is below. 

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For reference, there are a few totals for the year that are interesting to note:

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In essence, there are some interesting trends that seem to follow logic and some others that may be outliers.

First, days on market decreases in the summer months and increases during the winter. This trend seems to fit our expectation of the market, however there is an interesting trend that follows these months as well, at least based on 2017 numbers. The average sales price increases during the winter months and decreases in the summer. This could be related to the small data size, the fact that it will take longer to sell a more expensive house, so these home would sit into the slow season before selling.

Secondly, the number of homes sold during the summer is much higher than the winter. The majority of closings happen between May and September in Kendall County, accounting for 303 out of 581 total sales, or 52% in just 5 months. The average number of units sold in these months is over 60 compared to just 40 per month in the other months. 


Third, sale price tends to be further from the list price the higher you go in value and the longer the home sits on the market. I analyzed all sales to determine whether a home gets lower sales prices based on how long it has been on the market and came up with a weak correlation, however a stronger one than other areas of data. Here are some statements based on teh list price/sales price ratio and other factors:

List price Correlation -0.204497481 The higher the list price, the further away the sales price is
Days on Market Correlation -0.227869731 The higher days on market, the further away from the list price the sales price will be
Year Built and list price 0.202793015 The newer the year build, the closer to the list price the house sells for
Sq Ft and LP:SP -0.181229321 The higher the sq ft, the lower the sales price is compared to the list price
$/Sq ft and LP:SP -0.148470292 The higher the $/sq ft, the lower the sales price is compared to the list price

The biggest factor was found to be the number of days on market the home sits, the lower the final sales price will be. So, in order to avoid that you need a great real estate agent who knows all the tricks:

-List the home as close to the true market value as possible

-Make updates and upgrades that add value for the buyers

-Create a sense of urgency for buyers regarding your home

-Don't overprice because you are worried about negotiations

-Don't overprice "Just to see what happens"

-Use home stagers, online marketing, print media, open houses and other methods to generate traffic

-Follow up quickly with every potential buyer

-Utilize your network of friends, family, and co-workers to find a buyer quickly

-Utilize a network of professionals to quickly sell and close on the home.


So, after all that fun stuff what does that mean for 2018?

1. Kendall County will stay in an upward trend for home prices, sales, and new construction

2. Anticipated number of home sales: 600+

3. Anticipated average home price: $465,000

4. New construction home sales estimate: 120, up from 97 in 2017


Cheers to 2018!

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